TEX⇄BOS

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net −$2.4M net +0.5

received +$28.8M+$21.6M ± $26M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 6.2 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1996 odds 74% → 76% (+1.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dwayne HoseyOF·29y·B/R

+$34.8M+$34.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 5.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#322 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 9.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

1.34/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Mike StantonP·29y·L/L

−$6.2M−$13.2M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 2.6 seasons

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net +$2.4M net -0.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $35M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 2.2 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1996 odds 11% → 10% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kerry LacyP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

#404 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mark BrandenburgP·25y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

#734 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.17/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.