SEA⇄PHI

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$2.4M net +0.5

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $34M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 4 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1993 odds 38% → 40% (+2.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob AyraultP·27y·R/R

+$3.3M+$3.3M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#657 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.28/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.90 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net −$2.4M net -0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1993 odds 76% → 74% (-2.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin FosterP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#745 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.