SEA⇄BOS

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$279.2M net +24.6

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $14M expected surplus · +$330.4M realized received 1.9 ± 2 expected · 30.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1996 odds 79% → 82% (+3.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jamie MoyerP·33y·L/L

+$4.4M+$4.4M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$330.4M 1.9± 2 exp WARrealized 30.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.0/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.32/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net −$279.2M net -24.6

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $28M expected surplus · +$51.2M realized received 3.8 ± 4 expected · 5.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1996 odds 12% → 10% (-2.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Darren BraggOF·26y·L/R

+$19.8M+$19.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$51.2M 3.8± 4 exp WARrealized 5.6

Prior

#578 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.2/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.70/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.99 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.