ATL⇄TEX

ATLATL John Schuerholz net +$3.2M net +0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2005 odds 63% → 65% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt LorenzoP·23y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#136 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX John Hart net −$3.2M net -0.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $7M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2005 odds 18% → 17% (-0.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin GryboskiP·31y·R/R

−$1.7M−$1.7M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.33 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.