ARI⇄MIN

ARIARI Joe Garagiola net +$4.8M net +1.7

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $27M expected surplus · +$4.8M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Chad MoellerC·26y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

#187 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.1/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.31/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Terry Ryan net −$4.8M net -1.7

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Hanley FriasSS·27y·B/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.