NYM⇄MIN

NYMNYM Frank Cashen net +$11.2M net +0.6

received +$20.0M+$20.0M ± $61M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 6.6 ± 8 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 1989 odds 70% → 73% (+3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff BumgarnerP·22y·R/R

+$15.2M+$15.2M± $41M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 4.0± 5 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#13 overall draft pick → 0.67/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Steve GasserP·21y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#41 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Toby NivensP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#615 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

MINMIN Andy MacPhail net −$11.2M net -0.6

received +$15.2M+$15.2M ± $25M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 3.5 ± 3 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1989 odds 9% → 8% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wally Backman2B·29y·B/R

+$14.9M+$14.9M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 3.3± 3 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.7/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.67/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mike Santiago

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.