CIN⇄WSN

CINCIN Bill Bergesch net −$3.2M net +0.5

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $35M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1985 odds 17% → 19% (+2.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Max VenableOF·28y·L/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $35M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

WSNWSN Murray Cook net +$3.2M net -0.5

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $35M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.7 ± 4 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved WSN's 1985 odds 26% → 23% (-2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Skeeter Barnes1B/3B/OF·28y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $35M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.7± 4 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.64 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.