PIT⇄CHW

PITPIT Syd Thrift net +$13.6M net +4.3

received +$7.2M+$7.2M ± $30M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 1.6 ± 4 expected · 3.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 1987 odds 24% → 39% (+14.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

John CangelosiOF·24y·B/L

+$6.9M+$6.9M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.6± 4 exp WARrealized 3.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.33/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Larry Himes net −$13.6M net -4.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $26M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · -1.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1987 odds 20% → 11% (-8.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jim WinnP·27y·R/R

+$1.2M+$1.2M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$8.0M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized -1.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.