PIT⇄STL

PITPIT Cam Bonifay net +$16.8M net +12.6

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · +$15.2M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 12.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2000 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jack WilsonSS·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$15.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 12.7

Prior

#258 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Walt Jocketty net −$16.8M net -12.6

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.7 ± 1 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2000 odds 74% → 75% (+1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jason ChristiansenP·30y·R/L

−$2.0M−$2.0M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.53/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.