MIL⇄LAD

MILMIL Dean Taylor net +$4.0M net +0.3

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $42M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 4.5 ± 5 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 2002 odds 0% → 0% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ben DigginsP·23y·R/R

+$11.8M+$11.8M± $37M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 3.3± 5 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#17 overall draft pick → 0.60/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Shane NanceP·24y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

#327 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

LADLAD Dan Evans net −$4.0M net -0.3

received +$0.0M−$2.4M ± $29M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.8 ± 4 expected · -0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2002 odds 48% → 46% (-1.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian MalletteP·27y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $27M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#817 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.79 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Tyler HoustonC/3B·31y·L/R

+$0.0M−$2.5M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized -0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.36/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.63/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.