SDP⇄CLE

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$22.4M net +5.6

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $22M expected surplus · +$22.4M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 5.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 2006 odds 57% → 56% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike AdamsP·27y·R/R

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$22.4M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 5.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net −$22.4M net -5.6

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $8M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2006 odds 29% → 29% (+1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brian SikorskiP·31y·R/R

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#109 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.0 season

Talent

0.19/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.31 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.