LAD⇄TEX

LADLAD Al Campanis net +$3.2M net +0.4

received +$5.6M+$5.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.9 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

José Mota2B·22y·B/R

+$5.4M+$5.4M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#33 overall draft pick → 0.34/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.34/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net −$3.2M net -0.4

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $42M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 1.0 ± 5 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Larry See1B/DH·27y·R/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $42M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 1.0± 5 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.