BOS⇄TEX

BOSBOS Dan Duquette net +$2.4M net +0.6

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $23M expected surplus · +$1.6M realized received 0.9 ± 3 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BOS's 1996 odds 8% → 10% (+1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Rudy PembertonOF·26y·R/R

+$0.2M+$0.2M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$1.6M 0.9± 3 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net −$2.4M net -0.6

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $25M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.2 ± 3 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1996 odds 79% → 76% (-2.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bryan EversgerdP·27y·R/L

−$1.9M−$1.9M± $25M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

0.05/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.