SEA⇄SFG

SEASEA Jerry Dipoto net +$0.8M net +0.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $10M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2022 odds 27% → 28% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Alex Blandino2B/3B·29y·R/R

−$0.6M−$0.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.29/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Farhan Zaidi net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $26M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.8 ± 3 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 2022 odds 23% → 22% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Stuart FairchildOF·26y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.8± 3 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#38 overall draft pick → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.2/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.