SEA⇄SFG

SEASEA Woody Woodward net −$4.0M net +0.2

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $40M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 0.0 ± 5 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1990 odds 40% → 43% (+2.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Russ SwanP·26y·L/L

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $40M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 0.0± 5 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

#214 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -7.3/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

-0.18/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Al Rosen net +$4.0M net -0.2

received +$3.2M+$3.2M ± $26M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1990 odds 9% → 9% (-0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Gary EaveP·26y·R/R

+$3.0M+$3.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#302 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.27/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.