ATL⇄STL

ATLATL Bobby Cox net −$12.0M net +0.1

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $37M expected surplus · −$13.6M realized received 0.3 ± 5 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 1987 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe BoeverP·26y·R/R

−$2.9M−$2.9M± $37M exp surplusrealized −$13.6M 0.3± 5 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.6 season

Talent

0.06/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

STLSTL Dal Maxvill net +$12.0M net -0.1

received +$10.4M+$10.4M ± $50M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 2.7 ± 6 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 1987 odds 22% → 24% (+1.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Randy O'NealP·26y·R/R

+$10.2M+$10.2M± $50M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 2.7± 6 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.67/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.