TEX⇄PIT

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net +$11.2M net +2.0

received +$24.0M+$24.0M ± $30M expected surplus · +$18.4M realized received 3.6 ± 4 expected · 4.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Esteban LoaizaP·26y·R/R

+$23.6M+$23.6M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$18.4M 3.6± 4 exp WARrealized 4.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

1.20/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Cam Bonifay net −$11.2M net -2.0

received +$2.4M+$1.6M ± $26M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 1.4 ± 3 expected · 2.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Warren Morris2B·24y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized +$4.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

#143 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Todd Van PoppelP·26y·R/R

+$0.3M−$0.5M± $8M exp surplusrealized +$2.4M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.42/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.