BAL⇄ATL

BALBAL Syd Thrift net +$5.6M net +0.5

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.1 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Steve Sisco2B/OF·31y·R/R

−$2.4M−$2.4M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.1± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#442 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

3.9 control yrs × 0.26 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

ATLATL John Schuerholz net −$5.6M net -0.5

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.4 ± 3 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jesse Garcia2B/SS·27y·R/R

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.4± 3 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

#735 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.8/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.09/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.80 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.