KCR⇄CIN

KCRKCR Herk Robinson net +$1.6M net +0.1

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $18M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1991 odds 15% → 16% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Todd Benzinger1B·28y·B/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.7/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

-0.35/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Bob Quinn net −$1.6M net -0.1

received −$1.6M−$2.4M ± $13M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1991 odds 41% → 41% (-0.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Carmelo Martínez1B/OF·30y·R/R

−$2.0M−$2.7M± $13M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.73/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.96 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.