NYM⇄KCR

NYMNYM Steve Phillips net +$4.0M net +0.7

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $6M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2001 odds 5% → 6% (+0.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mike Curry

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

KCRKCR Allard Baird net −$4.0M net -0.7

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$4.0M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2001 odds 1% → 1% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Endy ChávezOF·23y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.