SEA⇄CLE⇄NYM

SEASEA Lee Pelekoudas net +$164.8M net +24.2

received +$44.0M+$43.2M ± $56M expected surplus · +$134.4M realized received 11.8 ± 7 expected · 21.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2009 odds 3% → 18% (+14.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Franklin GutiérrezOF·26y·R/R

+$28.8M+$28.8M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$92.0M 5.4± 4 exp WARrealized 13.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 2.3/yr over 1.5 season

Talent

1.35/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Endy ChávezOF·31y·L/L

+$4.7M+$4.0M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$6.4M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.88/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Aaron HeilmanP·30y·R/R

+$2.7M+$2.7M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.8± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.30/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.86 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jason VargasP·26y·L/L

+$2.2M+$2.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$48.8M 0.7± 2 exp WARrealized 8.1

Prior

#68 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.33/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Maikel CletoP·20y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Ezequiel CarreraOF·22y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Mike Carp1B/OF·23y·L/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

#254 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE Mark Shapiro net −$96.8M net -11.4

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $31M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 2.1 ± 4 expected · 2.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 2009 odds 7% → 2% (-5.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joe SmithP·25y·R/R

+$2.4M+$2.4M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 3.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Luis Valbuena3B·23y·L/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 1.1± 3 exp WARrealized -1.5

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.1 season

Talent

0.20/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Omar Minaya net −$68.0M net -12.8

received +$18.4M+$12.8M ± $22M expected surplus · −$20.0M realized received 3.1 ± 3 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2009 odds 2% → 1% (-1.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

J. J. PutzP·32y·R/R

+$11.7M+$6.0M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.3/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.94/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Jeremy ReedOF·28y·L/L

+$3.6M+$3.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.8± 2 exp WARrealized -0.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.2 season

Talent

0.40/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Sean GreenP·30y·R/R

+$3.1M+$3.1M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

0.48/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.70 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.