KCR⇄PIT

KCRKCR Allard Baird net +$6.4M net +0.8

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2005 odds 0% → 0% (-0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Juan Carlos OviedoP·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.7

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Dave Littlefield net −$6.4M net -0.8

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $0M expected surplus · −$5.6M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2005 odds 1% → 1% (+0 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Benito SantiagoC·40y·R/R

−$4.7M−$4.7M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.4/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.97/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.