ATL⇄PIT

ATLATL John Hart net +$10.4M net +0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $19M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2017 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Connor Joe1B/OF·24y·R/R

+$1.4M+$1.4M± $19M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#39 overall draft pick → 0.23/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.23/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

PITPIT Neal Huntington net −$10.4M net -0.5

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $6M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PIT's 2017 odds 4% → 4% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Sean Rodríguez2B·32y·R/R

+$1.9M+$1.9M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.3 seasons

Talent

0.89/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.