TEX⇄MIL

TEXTEX Douglas Melvin net +$8.0M net +1.2

received −$0.8M−$0.8M ± $22M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.7 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 1995 odds 6% → 7% (+1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Scott TaylorP·28y·R/R

−$0.8M−$0.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.7± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

#383 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.61 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MILMIL Sal Bando net −$8.0M net -1.2

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $27M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -1.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIL's 1995 odds 1% → 1% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David HulseOF·27y·L/L

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$10.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -1.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.6/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

-0.15/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.