MIN⇄SDP

MINMIN Andy MacPhail net +$2.4M net +0.4

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $14M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 1989 odds 7% → 8% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Greg BookerP·29y·R/R

+$0.1M+$0.1M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.13/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Jack McKeon net −$2.4M net -0.4

received +$32.0M+$32.0M ± $44M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 4.6 ± 6 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1989 odds 6% → 6% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Freddie ToliverP·28y·R/R

+$32.1M+$32.1M± $44M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 4.6± 6 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.9/yr over 1.1 season

Talent

1.00/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.