CHW⇄HOU

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net +$2.4M net +0.1

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $5M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1997 odds 4% → 5% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Julien Tucker

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $5M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

HOUHOU Gerry Hunsicker net −$2.4M net -0.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $0M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 0 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved HOU's 1997 odds 81% → 81% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tony PeñaC·40y·R/R

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $0M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 0 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.8 season

Talent

0.02/yr blended

Horizon

0.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.