MIN⇄MIA

MINMIN Derek Falvey net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$4.0M+$2.4M ± $9M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 1 expected · 0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIN's 2023 odds 61% → 63% (+1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dylan FloroP·32y·L/R

+$3.7M+$2.2M± $9M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.69/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Kim Ng net −$2.4M net -0.3

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $10M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · -0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2023 odds 6% → 5% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jorge LópezP·30y·R/R

+$7.9M+$7.9M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

0.51/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs × 0.87 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.