LAD⇄CHC

LADLAD Fred Claire net −$3.2M net +0.3

received +$18.4M+$18.4M ± $24M expected surplus · −$4.8M realized received 2.8 ± 3 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 1991 odds 37% → 38% (+0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Steve WilsonP·26y·L/L

+$18.5M+$18.5M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 2.8± 3 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.70/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CHCCHC Jim Frey net +$3.2M net -0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHC's 1991 odds 12% → 11% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff HartsockP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

#166 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.