SDP⇄DET

SDPSDP Kevin Towers net +$2.4M net +1.6

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $35M expected surplus · +$0.8M realized received 2.6 ± 4 expected · 2.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1998 odds 28% → 33% (+5.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Donne WallP·30y·R/R

+$4.0M+$4.0M± $21M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.8

Prior

#462 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.56/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.60 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Ryan Balfe3B·22y·S/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#221 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Dan MiceliP·27y·R/R

−$1.5M−$1.5M± $13M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 1.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

-0.00/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net −$2.4M net -1.6

received −$1.6M−$4.0M ± $22M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.7 ± 3 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 1998 odds 7% → 6% (-1.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim WorrellP·30y·R/R

+$2.5M−$0.6M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.7± 1 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.7/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.52/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.91 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Trey BeamonOF·24y·L/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

Composite #90.0 pedigree (Baseball America #90 (1996)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.5/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

-0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.