ANA⇄CHW

ANAANA Whitey Herzog net +$1.6M net +0.3

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $9M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.3 ± 1 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 1994 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff SchwarzP·30y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $9M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.3± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.2/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.22/yr blended

Horizon

4.4 control yrs × 0.31 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net −$1.6M net -0.3

received −$0.8M−$1.6M ± $6M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1994 odds 94% → 94% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bob MelvinC·32y·R/R

−$0.7M−$1.4M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.1/yr over 1.4 season

Talent

0.04/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.67 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.