LAD⇄MIA

LADLAD Andrew Friedman net +$7.2M net +5.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $11M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 1.2 ± 1 expected · 5.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved LAD's 2023 odds 84% → 85% (+1.8 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Miguel RojasSS·34y·R/R

+$1.7M+$1.7M± $11M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 1.2± 1 exp WARrealized 5.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.2 seasons

Talent

1.17/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

MIAMIA Kim Ng net −$7.2M net -5.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved MIA's 2023 odds 6% → 5% (-0.7 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jacob AmayaSS·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -0.0

Prior

#340 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.