SEA⇄CLE

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$21.6M net +6.1

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $32M expected surplus · +$12.0M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · 5.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1998 odds 47% → 52% (+5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

David Bell2B/3B·25y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $32M exp surplusrealized +$12.0M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 5.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.3/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

-0.41/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net −$21.6M net -6.1

received −$2.4M−$3.2M ± $10M expected surplus · −$9.6M realized received 0.9 ± 1 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1998 odds 59% → 54% (-4.9 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Joey Cora2B·33y·B/R

−$2.6M−$3.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$9.6M 0.9± 1 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.24/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.9/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

0.65/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.