SFG⇄BAL

SFGSFG Bob Quinn net +$0.0M net +0.0

received −$4.0M−$4.0M ± $32M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 4 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SFG's 1993 odds 80% → 80% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Luis MercedesOF·25y·R/R

−$3.7M−$3.7M± $32M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

Composite #80.0 pedigree (Baseball America #80 (1992)) — fell off 1 list since, regressed → 0.23/yr

Evidence

recent form -4.0/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.47/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

BALBAL Roland Hemond net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $30M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 1.2 ± 4 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved BAL's 1993 odds 53% → 53% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Kevin McGeheeP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#224 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.