PHI⇄DET

PHIPHI Ed Wade net +$7.2M net +0.9

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $4M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 0 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 2000 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bobby Sismondo

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $4M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 0 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

DETDET Randy Smith net −$7.2M net -0.9

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $15M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · -0.9 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2000 odds 28% → 26% (-1.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Wendell MageeOF·27y·R/R

−$1.8M−$1.8M± $15M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.2/yr over 0.3 season

Talent

0.12/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.