NYM⇄ANA

NYMNYM Billy Eppler net +$0.8M net +0.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2023 odds 5% → 6% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeremiah Jackson2B/OF·23y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#57 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Perry Minasian net −$0.8M net -0.2

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $7M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 0.2 ± 1 expected · -0.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2023 odds 3% → 3% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Dominic LeoneP·31y·R/R

+$1.0M+$1.0M± $7M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized -0.2

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 2.5 seasons

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

1.0 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.