ATL⇄ANA

ATLATL Frank Wren net +$8.0M net +1.3

received +$8.8M+$8.8M ± $30M expected surplus · +$5.6M realized received 2.4 ± 4 expected · 1.7 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ATL's 2013 odds 60% → 62% (+2.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jordan WaldenP·25y·R/R

+$9.0M+$9.0M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$5.6M 2.4± 4 exp WARrealized 1.7

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.8/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.60/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

ANAANA Jerry Dipoto net −$8.0M net -1.3

received +$14.4M+$14.4M ± $23M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 2.2 ± 3 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved ANA's 2013 odds 10% → 9% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tommy HansonP·26y·R/R

+$14.2M+$14.2M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 2.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

0.72/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.