CHW⇄CLE

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net +$2.4M net +0.3

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $30M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1994 odds 93% → 94% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ken RamosOF·27y·L/L

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $30M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.82 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net −$2.4M net -0.3

received −$2.4M−$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · −$2.4M realized received 0.0 ± 3 expected · -0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1994 odds 85% → 84% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Matt MerulloC·28y·L/R

−$2.2M−$2.2M± $23M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 0.0± 3 exp WARrealized -0.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -2.1/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

-0.43/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.