SEA⇄SDP

SEASEA Woody Woodward net −$11.2M net +0.2

received +$68.0M+$52.8M ± $36M expected surplus · −$11.2M realized received 5.9 ± 4 expected · 0.6 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1995 odds 71% → 72% (+0.6 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Andy BenesP·27y·R/R

+$66.1M+$51.0M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$11.2M 4.7± 3 exp WARrealized 0.6

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.94/yr

Evidence

recent form 4.2/yr over 2.4 seasons

Talent

3.11/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Greg KeagleP·24y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#170 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SDPSDP Randy Smith net +$11.2M net -0.2

received +$13.6M+$13.6M ± $48M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 4.4 ± 6 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SDP's 1995 odds 2% → 2% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Ron VilloneP·25y·L/L

+$13.7M+$13.7M± $34M exp surplusrealized +$0.8M 3.6± 4 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#14 overall draft pick → 0.65/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.65/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Marc NewfieldOF·22y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $34M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 0.8± 4 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#6 overall draft pick → 0.76/yr

Evidence

recent form -4.0/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.