KCR⇄PHI

KCRKCR John Schuerholz net −$1.6M net +0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $10M expected surplus · −$1.6M realized received 0.5 ± 1 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 1989 odds 33% → 37% (+3.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Larry McWilliamsP·35y·L/L

+$2.6M+$2.6M± $10M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 0.5± 1 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.6/yr over 1.9 season

Talent

0.42/yr blended

Horizon

1.7 control yr × 0.78 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

PHIPHI Lee Thomas net +$1.6M net -0.3

received +$0.0M+$0.0M ± $12M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.2 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved PHI's 1989 odds 0% → 0% (-0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jeff Hulse

+$0.3M+$0.3M± $12M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Unidentified minor-league throw-in — valued at the ~0.2 WAR base rate (most produce nothing)

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.