KCR⇄TEX

KCRKCR Allard Baird net +$8.0M net +2.4

received −$4.8M−$4.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 0.0 ± 2 expected · 2.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved KCR's 2006 odds 0% → 1% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Esteban Germán2B/3B·28y·R/R

−$4.5M−$4.5M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 0.0± 2 exp WARrealized 2.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.2/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

0.01/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.55 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

TEXTEX John Hart net −$8.0M net -2.4

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $22M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TEX's 2006 odds 13% → 9% (-3.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Fabio CastroP·21y·L/L

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $22M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.