PHI⇄SFG

PHIPHI Dave Dombrowski net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.0 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Will Toffey3B·27y·L/R

+$0.7M+$0.7M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.0± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#111 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs × 0.76 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SFGSFG Farhan Zaidi net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$4.8M+$4.8M ± $18M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.4 ± 2 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Luke Williams3B/OF·25y·R/R

+$4.9M+$4.9M± $18M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.4± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#83 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.4/yr over 0.4 season

Talent

0.25/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.