STL⇄COL

STLSTL John Mozeliak net +$104.8M net +17.0

received +$93.6M+$93.6M ± $57M expected surplus · +$111.2M realized received 19.7 ± 7 expected · 18.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved STL's 2021 odds 19% → 32% (+13.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Nolan Arenado3B·30y·R/R

+$93.4M+$93.4M± $57M exp surplusrealized +$111.2M 19.7± 7 exp WARrealized 18.3

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 5.1/yr over 2.1 seasons

Talent

3.30/yr blended

Horizon

7.0 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Jeff Bridich net −$104.8M net -17.0

received +$25.6M+$25.6M ± $50M expected surplus · +$6.4M realized received 7.7 ± 6 expected · 1.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2021 odds 3% → 1% (-1.4 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Austin GomberP·27y·L/L

+$17.0M+$17.0M± $26M exp surplusrealized +$20.8M 2.6± 3 exp WARrealized 3.8

Prior

#135 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.0/yr over 0.9 season

Talent

0.55/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.95 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Mateo GilSS·20y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#95 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Jake SommersP·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#305 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Tony LoceyP·22y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $22M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#96 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Elehuris Montero1B·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $20M exp surplusrealized −$14.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized -2.5

Prior

Composite #81.0 prospect (Baseball America #81 (2019)) — fell off 2 lists since, regressed — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.