DET⇄NYM

DETDET Dave Dombrowski net +$6.4M net +1.2

received +$4.0M+$4.0M ± $18M expected surplus · −$0.8M realized received 1.6 ± 2 expected · 0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved DET's 2005 odds 7% → 7% (+0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Vance WilsonC·32y·R/R

+$4.3M+$4.3M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$0.8M 1.6± 2 exp WARrealized 0.4

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.3 season

Talent

0.71/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs × 0.73 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

NYMNYM Omar Minaya net −$6.4M net -1.2

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $21M expected surplus · −$7.2M realized received 1.2 ± 3 expected · -0.8 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved NYM's 2005 odds 21% → 20% (-0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Anderson Hernández2B/SS·22y·B/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $21M exp surplusrealized −$7.2M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.