COL⇄SEA

COLCOL Daniel O'Dowd net +$0.0M net +0.3

received +$1.6M+$1.6M ± $20M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 2 expected · 0.3 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 2004 odds 1% → 1% (+0.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Allan SimpsonP·26y·R/R

+$1.3M+$1.3M± $20M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.3

Prior

#253 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.94 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Pat Gillick net +$0.0M net -0.3

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $23M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 2004 odds 3% → 3% (-0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Chris BuglovskyP·24y·L/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $23M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#77 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.