CHW⇄CIN

CHWCHW Ron Schueler net +$7.2M net +2.5

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $14M expected surplus · +$7.2M realized received 0.4 ± 2 expected · 2.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CHW's 1999 odds 1% → 2% (+0.5 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Brook FordyceC·29y·R/R

−$1.6M−$1.6M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$7.2M 0.4± 2 exp WARrealized 2.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.16/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.48 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

CINCIN Jim Bowden net −$7.2M net -2.5

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $25M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.3 ± 3 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1999 odds 75% → 67% (-8.1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Jake MeyerP·24y·R/R

+$2.3M+$2.3M± $25M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.3± 3 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#219 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

6.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.