TEX⇄CLE

TEXTEX Tom Grieve net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$8.0M+$8.0M ± $31M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 2.3 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Dave EilandP·26y·R/R

+$8.2M+$8.2M± $31M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 2.3± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#185 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

0.57/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net +$0.0M net +0.0

received +$2.4M+$1.6M ± $31M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 1.1 ± 4 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Allan AndersonP·29y·L/L

+$5.8M+$4.2M± $14M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 1.1± 2 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.71/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Gerald AlexanderP·25y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $28M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 4 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#533 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.4/yr over 0.8 season

Talent

-0.02/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.