CLE⇄BOS

CLECLE John Hart net −$5.6M net +0.0

received −$1.6M−$4.8M ± $14M expected surplus · −$14.4M realized received 1.2 ± 2 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Jeff RussellP·32y·R/R

−$1.9M−$4.8M± $14M exp surplusrealized −$14.4M 1.2± 2 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.2/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.87/yr blended

Horizon

1.5 control yr × 0.93 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

BOSBOS Lou Gorman net +$5.6M net +0.0

received +$20.8M+$20.8M ± $38M expected surplus · −$8.8M realized received 3.7 ± 5 expected · 0.1 realized WAR

receives — most valuable first

Chris NabholzP·27y·L/L

+$23.0M+$23.0M± $38M exp surplusrealized −$4.0M 3.5± 5 exp WARrealized 0.1

Prior

#49 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.7/yr over 2.0 seasons

Talent

1.16/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Steve FarrP·37y·R/R

−$2.3M−$2.3M± $6M exp surplusrealized −$4.8M 0.2± 1 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.5/yr over 2.8 seasons

Talent

0.44/yr blended

Horizon

0.6 control yr

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.