CIN⇄CLE

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$3.2M net +0.5

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $10M expected surplus · +$3.2M realized received 0.0 ± 1 expected · 0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1995 odds 80% → 83% (+3.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark Lewis2B/3B·25y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $10M exp surplusrealized +$3.2M 0.0± 1 exp WARrealized 0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.48/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.1/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

-0.10/yr blended

Horizon

2.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

CLECLE John Hart net −$3.2M net -0.5

received −$3.2M−$3.2M ± $58M expected surplus · +$0.0M realized received 0.0 ± 7 expected · 0.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CLE's 1995 odds 96% → 95% (-1 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Tim Costo1B/OF·26y·R/R

−$3.0M−$3.0M± $58M exp surplusrealized +$0.0M 0.0± 7 exp WARrealized 0.0

Prior

#1033 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -1.9/yr over 0.2 season

Talent

-0.05/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.