CIN⇄COL

CINCIN Jim Bowden net +$0.0M net +0.1

received −$1.6M−$1.6M ± $18M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.3 ± 2 expected · -0.4 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved CIN's 1998 odds 8% → 8% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Mark HuttonP·28y·R/R

−$1.4M−$1.4M± $18M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.3± 2 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.0/yr over 1.6 season

Talent

0.10/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.75 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

COLCOL Bob Gebhard net +$0.0M net -0.1

received +$0.8M+$0.8M ± $19M expected surplus · −$3.2M realized received 0.5 ± 2 expected · -0.5 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved COL's 1998 odds 6% → 6% (-0.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Curtis GoodwinOF·25y·L/L

+$0.4M+$0.4M± $19M exp surplusrealized −$3.2M 0.5± 2 exp WARrealized -0.5

Prior

league baseline (track record outweighs draft pedigree) → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.1/yr over 1.0 season

Talent

0.18/yr blended

Horizon

3.0 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.