TOR⇄SEA

TORTOR Gord Ash net −$2.4M net +0.2

received +$11.2M+$11.2M ± $36M expected surplus · −$10.4M realized received 3.7 ± 4 expected · -1.0 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved TOR's 1996 odds 4% → 4% (+0.3 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Bill RisleyP·29y·R/R

+$9.8M+$9.8M± $24M exp surplusrealized −$8.8M 2.5± 3 exp WARrealized -0.9

Prior

#361 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 1.1/yr over 1.7 season

Talent

0.73/yr blended

Horizon

4.0 control yrs × 0.85 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Miguel Cairo2B·22y·R/R

+$1.8M+$1.8M± $27M exp surplusrealized −$1.6M 1.2± 3 exp WARrealized -0.1

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

no MLB track record — leans on pedigree

Talent

0.21/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs

why ▾hide ▴

SEASEA Woody Woodward net +$2.4M net -0.2

received +$2.4M+$2.4M ± $43M expected surplus · −$8.0M realized received 2.0 ± 5 expected · -1.2 realized WAR

Playoff odds: this deal moved SEA's 1996 odds 84% → 82% (-1.2 pts) — how trade timing is graded ↗

receives — most valuable first

Paul MenhartP·27y·R/R

+$2.7M+$2.7M± $31M exp surplusrealized −$2.4M 1.2± 4 exp WARrealized -0.4

Prior

#225 overall draft pick — at the league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form 0.3/yr over 0.7 season

Talent

0.26/yr blended

Horizon

5.0 control yrs × 0.89 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Edwin HurtadoP·26y·R/R

−$0.3M−$0.3M± $30M exp surplusrealized −$5.6M 0.8± 4 exp WARrealized -0.8

Prior

no pedigree — league baseline → 0.21/yr

Evidence

recent form -0.0/yr over 0.5 season

Talent

0.15/yr blended

Horizon

5.5 control yrs × 0.92 age decline

why ▾hide ▴

Each player is valued on what he was expected to produce at the time of the trade, versus what he actually produced for his new team.

Expected WAR blends a player's pedigree (composite top-100 rank / draft slot, or a baseline) with his recent track record, projected over the years of team control acquired. The ± figure is a historically calibrated predictive standard deviation, measuring how widely comparable forecasts have missed around their expected value. Surplus values that production at the FA market price of a win (~$8M/WAR) minus salary — so cost-controlled players carry large surplus and expensive ones little, even at the same WAR. Who won is descriptive, not a skill claim: ~99% of a trade's outcome is unforeseeable at the time.